A potential initial public offering by crypto exchange Kraken and a rise in merger and acquisition activity could help reignite what fund managers describe as crypto’s mid-stage market cycle
Market participants said a wave of crypto firms seeking public listings may draw renewed interest and capital from traditional finance investors.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,000 on 6 October before suffering a sharp reversal following a $19 billion liquidation event days later.
Dan Tapiero, founder and chief executive of 50T Funds, said the current Bitcoin bull market remains far from exhausted despite recent volatility.
The Bitcoin bull market is still mid-stage.
Dan Tapiero said, adding that a Kraken IPO and increased M&A activity could provide fresh tailwinds from TradFi.
Kraken previously raised $800 million in funding, valuing the exchange at $20 billion, and has reportedly filed confidentially for a United States IPO.
Supporters of the mid-cycle thesis argue that public listings can improve transparency and investor confidence across the digital asset sector.
Not all analysts share the same outlook, with some warning that Bitcoin could face a prolonged correction later in the decade.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, said Bitcoin could experience a year of downside pressure in 2026.
Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for Bitcoin, with support at $65,000 to $75,000.
Jurrien Timmer said.
Tapiero’s view contrasts with expectations that the four-year Bitcoin cycle may weaken as macroeconomic forces take a larger role.
Jimmy Xue, co-founder and chief operating officer of Axis, said market behaviour is increasingly shaped by global liquidity and sovereign adoption trends.
It’s not surprising to see institutional caution as we close out 2025, but framing 2026 purely as a year of downside may miss the bigger picture.
Jimmy Xue said.
Xue added that easing global liquidity could turn current support levels into higher lows within a broader super-cycle.
Data from blockchain analytics firm Nansen showed so-called smart money traders positioning for short-term downside across most major cryptocurrencies.
According to Nansen, smart money traders were net short on most top tokens, signalling continued caution among sophisticated market participants.
Avalanche and Pump.fun’s PUMP token were notable exceptions, where traders maintained more neutral or positive positioning.
Analysts said the divergence in views highlights growing uncertainty over the durability of the current crypto market cycle.
Despite mixed signals, industry executives believe that IPOs and consolidation could mark a turning point for institutional engagement.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $87,681.60.