Bitcoin has remained trapped between $60,000 and $75,000 in 2026, failing to sustain breakouts even as geopolitical tensions and market volatility reshape global asset flows.
The cryptocurrency has outperformed stocks and gold since the Iran conflict began, yet it is still down more than 40% from its October peak above $126,000, highlighting weak recovery momentum.
“You see the pattern, market goes up a bit, open interest builds, funding rates tilt negative on Bitcoin, then we squeeze higher,”
Said Jasper De Maere, desk strategist at Wintermute.
Analysts say thin trading conditions compared with late 2025 have left Bitcoin vulnerable to sharp swings, with each rally fading quickly amid a lack of strong investor conviction.
“It’s a pattern seen in previous crypto bear markets, a sharp selloff, a 20% retracement, and then a stall,”
Said Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank.
Meanwhile, capital has rotated into commodities, with oil surging nearly 70% during the Iran crisis and metals such as aluminium nearing record highs as supply chain disruptions intensify.
Jeff Currie of Carlyle Energy Pathways described the shift as “the revenge of the old economy,” arguing investors now favour hard assets like oil and metals over digital scarcity plays such as Bitcoin.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $74,397.73.