Bitcoin has rebounded about 12% to $71,012 since the Iran conflict began, challenging its earlier weakness but failing to confirm a safe-haven role.
The asset initially dropped to $63,176 following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, while gold, previously the preferred safe haven, has since fallen 11% amid rising oil-driven inflation concerns.
“It’s range-bound and showing weakness within a broader downtrend. That’s not safe haven behavior,”
Said PrimeXBT senior market analyst, Jonatan Randin.
Analysts say Bitcoin continues to trade in line with risk assets, often selling off alongside equities during geopolitical shocks despite outperforming traditional assets over select periods.
Global liquidity remains the dominant driver of Bitcoin’s price, with tighter financial conditions such as higher real yields, a stronger dollar and weaker ETF inflows reducing capital and pressuring valuations.
“BTC is trading as a high-beta liquidity asset, which means tighter financial conditions…reduce marginal capital and pressure price,”
Said Altura co-founder, Matthew Pinnock.
Data shows Bitcoin has a 0.94 correlation with global liquidity and has moved in the same direction as global M2 money supply in 83% of periods, reinforcing its dependence on macro conditions rather than geopolitical stress.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $71,266.73.