Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) long-discussed four-year market cycle remains intact but is now shaped by political events and liquidity conditions rather than the asset’s halving mechanism, according to new analysis from 10x Research.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said the belief that the cycle has broken down misunderstands how Bitcoin's market dynamics have evolved in recent years.
Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen explained that US elections, central bank policy and capital flows now play a larger role in determining Bitcoin's peaks and troughs.
He noted that historical market highs in 2013, 2017 and 2021 all occurred in the fourth quarter, aligning more closely with political cycles than with halving dates.
Thielen argued that Bitcoin halvings have shifted across the calendar over time, weakening their reliability as a timing tool for major market moves.
“There's this uncertainty that the sitting president's party is going to lose a lot of seats, and therefore maybe he's not going to push a lot of his agenda through anymore,” Markus Thielen said.