Bitcoin bears retain edge ahead of $30.3B year-end options expiry

Bitcoin options markets remain tilted towards bearish positioning as $30.3 billion in contracts approach expiry at the end of the year.

Market data shows that the majority of call options are concentrated well above the $89,000 to $94,000 range, limiting bullish outcomes at current prices.

Bitcoin was trading near $87,700 at the time of writing, extending a five-week consolidation below the key $94,000 resistance level.

Bearish strategies remain favoured unless Bitcoin stages a decisive move above $94,000 before expiry.

Analysts said.

A total of $30.3 billion in open interest will be settled based on Bitcoin’s 8:00 am UTC price on Friday.

Deribit accounts for roughly 80% of total Bitcoin options open interest, followed by the Chicago-based CME with about 11%.

Of the $21.7 billion in outstanding call options, most are expected to expire worthless after Bitcoin failed to hold above $100,000 in November.

Less than six per cent of Deribit call options are positioned at strike prices of $92,000 or lower.

Data shows a heavy concentration of bullish bets between $100,000 and $125,000, even after excluding extreme strikes above $150,000.

Traders often use high strike prices to generate volatility premiums through covered call strategies.

Analysts said.

Despite this, bearish positioning may be overextended, with significant put option clustering between $75,000 and $86,000.

If Bitcoin trades above $88,000 at expiry, more than half of the $7.7 billion in put options on Deribit would expire worthless.

Even so, bears maintain the upper hand as long as Bitcoin remains below the $94,000 threshold.

Broader investor caution has also been influenced by rising risk concerns in the technology sector.

Oracle’s debt protection costs recently surged to record levels after the company issued nearly $26 billion in bonds this year.

Meanwhile, expectations of potential US economic stimulus have supported cautious optimism among Bitcoin bulls.

Traders increased call option exposure in the $90,000 to $120,000 range following signals of possible fiscal rebates in early 2026.

Optimism remains intact despite repeated failures to reclaim $94,000.

Market analysts said.

Scenario analysis shows bearish outcomes dominate unless Bitcoin settles above $96,000 at expiry.

Analysts warned that a settlement below $90,000 would represent a particularly negative outcome for bullish traders.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $87,694.62.