Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is heading into 2026 with forecasts pulling in opposite directions, as big-bank targets meet caution from technical charts.
Market watchers say traditional finance now shapes Bitcoin’s path more than in prior cycles, especially through spot ETF demand.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein both point to $150,000 in 2026, but they have cooled earlier targets after slower ETF inflows.
Some analysts still expect a fresh all-time high in the first half of 2026, arguing that institutional buying can stretch or break the old four-year rhythm.
The post-2024 halving cycle delivered strong gains earlier on, then ran into late-2025 consolidation and sharper swings.
Bitcoin reportedly hit an all-time high near $126,000 in October, then slid roughly 47% before recovering around the high-$80,000s.
The dip included a move down to about $80,500 in November, as macro uncertainty and shifting ETF flows pressured risk assets.
Bernstein’s longer-range view keeps $200,000 on the table for end-2027, even after pulling back a more aggressive near-term call.
Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor backed a $150,000 view for 2026 and played down volatility concerns after the correction.
More upbeat price targets from firms like Fundstrat cluster around $200,000 to $250,000, while cautious calls sit closer to $110,000 to $135,000.
Prediction market Polymarket pricing suggests uneven odds, including a 41% chance of Bitcoin clearing $130,000 and a 25% chance of touching $150,000 by end-2026.
The same market also implies a meaningful risk of downside in 2026, with odds pointing to a potential revisit of $75,000 despite chances of reclaiming $100,000.
Technicians argue the halving pattern still matters because prior peaks often arrived 12 to 18 months after the event as supply impacts filtered through.
Analyst Rekt Capital said the cycle looked more than 93% complete, keeping a possible market top in the fourth quarter of 2025 on the radar.
On weekly charts, the SuperTrend indicator reportedly flipped bearish, then gained confirmation when Bitcoin fell below the 50-week moving averages.
Momentum signals also weakened after a bearish MACD cross, which some traders treat as a classic “trend roll-over” marker.
Similar clusters of signals preceded deep drawdowns in past bear markets, which is why some chart readers warn of a 2026 low in the $40,000 to $70,000 range.
IntoCryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen expects a bounce towards the 200-day simple moving average near $108,000 before further weakness returns.
All prior cycle bear markets were confirmed by a macro lower high at the 200D SMA.
Benjamin Cowen said.
Cowen also flagged the 200-week moving averages as a possible long-term floor zone, putting the $60,000 to $70,000 area in focus for 2026.
The big question for 2026 is whether ETF-led demand turns dips into shorter pullbacks, or whether the old cycle playbook still drags Bitcoin into a deeper reset.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $88,863.70.