Moderna sees sales stabilizing near $1.9B as cuts deepen

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) projected 2025 sales at the upper end of its forecast as a smaller-than-expected decline in U.S. vaccination rates and aggressive cost-cutting help the biotech giant navigate the post-pandemic landscape.

The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company expects to report approximately $1.9 billion in revenue for the year, according to a statement Monday.

While that figure remains a fraction of the $18.4 billion generated during the 2022 pandemic peak, it lands near the top of its previously guided range of $1.6 billion to $2 billion.

Chief Financial Officer James Mock said in an interview that U.S. retail vaccination rates fell about 26% in 2025.

While a significant drop, it was less severe than the 40% decline the company had braced for, providing a floor for revenue.

The drugmaker is also tightening its belt, slashing $200 million from its operating-expense forecast to a new range of $5 billion to $5.2 billion.

The results provide a measure of stability for a company that has seen its stock struggle as demand for Covid-19 shots cratered.

Moderna is now pivoting toward a broader respiratory franchise and experimental "second act" therapies in oncology and rare diseases.

Management reiterated a 2026 goal of up to 10% revenue growth, pinned on the expected regulatory approvals of a standalone influenza vaccine and a Covid-flu combination shot.

Mock noted that while these products likely won't arrive in time for the 2026 respiratory season, they are expected to drive a more significant financial boost by 2027.

The company’s balance sheet also received a boost, with year-end cash projected at $8.1 billion—well above the previously estimated $6.5 billion to $7 billion.

This liquidity includes $600 million from a $1.5 billion loan secured from Ares Management in November.

Investors are looking toward 2026 for critical data readouts, including late-stage results for a norovirus vaccine and mid-stage data for a cancer vaccine being co-developed with Merck & Co.

Moderna is scheduled to report formal fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 13.