What is Representative Bryan Steil proposing for prediction markets?

Representative Bryan Steil wants to expand a proposed congressional trading ban to include prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. The proposal would prevent members of Congress and their immediate families from trading contracts linked to elections or public policy outcomes.

Why does Bryan Steil want lawmakers banned from prediction markets?

Steil argues that lawmakers should not profit from information or influence connected to elections and government policy. He believes public confidence in Congress is undermined when elected officials can trade on events they may help shape.

How would the proposed congressional trading ban work?

Under the current version of the bill, lawmakers would be prohibited from buying individual stocks and would need to publicly disclose planned stock sales at least seven days before completing them. Steil is now seeking to apply similar restrictions to prediction market trading.

What penalties could lawmakers face for violating the rules?

Violations would trigger penalties equal to either $2,000 or 10% of the investment's value, whichever is greater. Any profits generated from prohibited trades would also be forfeited.

Why are prediction markets facing increased scrutiny in Washington?

Lawmakers and regulators are examining whether people with access to non-public information could gain an unfair advantage in prediction markets. Concerns focus on insider trading risks, market integrity, consumer protection and platform oversight.

What concerns have been raised about Polymarket and Kalshi?

Congressional investigators have sought information about user verification procedures, location restrictions and systems used to detect suspicious trading activity. The inquiries are part of a broader effort to assess whether prediction markets have sufficient safeguards against abuse.

Has there been evidence of prediction market misuse before?

Kalshi disclosed earlier this year that it suspended three political candidates who traded contracts related to their own election races. Critics argue such cases highlight the potential for conflicts of interest and insider advantages in event-based markets.

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Steil targets prediction markets in trading ban

Written by Mahathir BayenaPublished Jun 5, 2026, 5:29 AM

House Republicans are seeking to extend a proposed congressional trading ban to prediction markets, with Representative Bryan Steil arguing lawmakers should not profit from trades linked to elections or public policy decisions.

Steil, chairman of the House Administration Committee, said lawmakers are working to add prediction market restrictions to H.R. 7008, legislation that would already prohibit members of Congress, their spouses and dependants from purchasing individual stocks.

“In my conversations with members and just the broad public, I don’t think anyone believes that members of Congress should be making trades on elections or making trades on public policy,”

Steil said.

The bill, which was reported out of committee in February and placed on the House calendar, would also require lawmakers to disclose plans to sell stocks at least seven days before completing a transaction.

Violations would carry penalties equal to either $2,000 or 10% of the investment value, whichever is greater, along with the forfeiture of any profits generated from the trade.

The proposal arrives as prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi face increasing scrutiny from lawmakers over insider trading risks, market integrity and consumer protection concerns.

Congressional attention has intensified following investigations into user verification procedures, suspicious trading activity and concerns that individuals with non-public information could gain an unfair advantage in contracts tied to political, economic and geopolitical events.