What is the bullish signal Fidelity identified for Solana?

Fidelity highlighted Solana’s Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) at -0.67 as a potential bullish signal. Historically, this level has been linked to a 516% median one-year return. However, Fidelity stressed that this pattern is based on limited data and may not repeat.

Why has Solana’s price fallen so sharply?

Solana has dropped about 71% from its 2025 all-time high due to broader crypto market weakness. This decline has pushed many holders into unrealised losses. The result is a “capitulation” phase where weaker hands may exit positions.

What does the NUPL metric actually measure?

NUPL measures whether holders are sitting on profits or losses based on current prices. A negative reading like -0.67 means most investors are holding at a loss. This often signals market stress but can also indicate potential bottoming zones.

Why is the -0.67 NUPL level significant?

Fidelity noted that past instances of NUPL near -0.67 were followed by strong rebounds. The median one-year return from those levels was 516%. However, this is based on just 10 data points, making the signal less reliable.

How reliable is this Solana rebound signal?

The signal is not highly reliable. Fidelity found no strong correlation between NUPL levels and future one-year returns, and only a weak relationship over three years. This means it should be treated as a potential indicator, not a guarantee.

What does “capitulation zone” mean for investors?

The capitulation zone refers to a phase where investors sell after heavy losses, often marking late-stage downturns. It can signal that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. However, prices can still fall further before stabilising.

Is Solana showing signs of recovery?

There are early signs of stabilisation, with NUPL rebounding 29% from its recent low of -0.94. This suggests some investors are no longer selling at a loss. However, Fidelity said a new price bottom cannot be ruled out.

Why is Solana’s network activity rising despite price weakness?

Solana’s usage is increasing, with monthly active addresses up 50% and new addresses up 35%. This indicates strong user engagement even during a downturn. It suggests the network may have underlying demand beyond price speculation.

Fidelity flags Solana rebound signal with caution

Written by Heidi Cuthbert Published Apr. 29 2026Last Updated Apr. 29 2026

Solana has fallen about 71% from its 2025 peak, with Fidelity pointing to a key onchain metric suggesting a potential rebound despite ongoing price weakness.

Fidelity Digital Assets said Solana’s Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) has dropped to -0.67, a level historically linked to a 516% median one-year return, though based on limited data.

“Importantly, the historical relationship between SOL’s NUPL score and forward returns may not persist,”

Fidelity said, cautioning that the signal may not repeat.

The metric sits in what Fidelity describes as a “Capitulation” zone, reflecting heavy unrealised losses among holders, though early signs of stabilisation have emerged.

Despite the price decline, Solana’s network activity has strengthened, with monthly active addresses rising 50% and new addresses increasing 35% during the quarter.

Following the update the Solana price was unchanged at $XX.

Fidelity said the divergence between rising usage and falling price suggests Solana may be evolving into a more sustainable financial ecosystem beyond its earlier association with memecoin trading.

At the time of reporting, Solana price was $84.63.