Fed rate hike odds reach 46%

• Polymarket traders put the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in September at 46%.
• Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) traded near US$64,700 as crypto markets assessed the prospect of tighter US monetary policy.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari backed gradual rate increases as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

Polymarket traders priced a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point September Fed hike as Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) traded near US$64,700.

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July, with three policymakers dissenting in favour of a 25-basis-point increase.

Polymarket traders also assigned a 64% probability to at least one Federal Reserve rate increase before the end of 2026.

Kashkari said higher rates could help return inflation towards 2%, while Strait of Hormuz disruptions have increased energy costs.

The Fed’s July Monetary Policy Report said PCE inflation reached 4.1% in May, compared with 2.5% one year earlier.

Markets will assess July employment and inflation data alongside Hormuz developments before the Fed’s 15–16 September policy meeting.