Prediction Markets Make the World a Casino
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are booming. They also face a widening legal battle with US states and criticism over alleged user insider trading. Here's how they got so controversial.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are booming. They also face a widening legal battle with US states and criticism over alleged user insider trading. Here's how they got so controversial.
Amir Handjani, board member at the Quincy Institute and partner at Karv Global, joins Caroline Hyde on "Bloomberg Markets." Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked Thursday, limited to a handful of Iran-linked ships, another sign that a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has yet to improve flows through the world's key energy chokepoint.
Quantum company Infleqtion is set to launch more of its technology into space over the weekend as demand for ways to navigate without GPS grows. Matt Kinsella, CEO of Infleqtion, discusses the company's quantum clocks and why they offer a superior option to quantum computers, for now. He joins Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow on "Bloomberg Tech."
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked Thursday, limited to a handful of Iran-linked ships, another sign that a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has yet to improve flows through the world's key energy chokepoint. Just seven vessels, all of which have either called at Iranian ports or were carrying Iranian cargo, were observed making the voyage out of the Persian Gulf on Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Normal transits in both directions are more like 135 a day. Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler joins to discuss what this means for oil market moving forward.
Natasha Hall, associate fellow at Chatham House, said the negotiations on the ceasefire in the Iran war are complicated by fundamental issues that have driven conflict in the region for years. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that he has agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. Stating that "In light of Lebanon's repeated calls to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the Cabinet yesterday to open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible" The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon.
Constellation Brands Inc. projected slower-than-expected growth for its beer business this year, renewing concern that declines in alcohol consumption have yet to hit their floor. Organic beer sales, which measure changes in sales volumes, are seen in a range of down 1% to up 1% in the company's current year, Constellation said Wednesday. The range trails analysts' average estimate for a 2.2% increase. While the guidance represents an improvement from the previous fiscal year, which ended Feb. 28, the lower-than-expected outlook suggests even popular brands such as Modelo and Corona are struggling to sidestep a broader decline in the category.
President Trump says US troops will remain in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran, while Tehran warns attacks on Lebanon could make negotiations meaningless. Dana Stroul, Director of Research at the Washington Institute and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, says we're now in a "fog of diplomacy and a fog of war." She joined Bloomberg Open Interest.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte says NATO is moving from Europe having an "unhealthy co-dependence" on the US toward a "transatlantic alliance grounded in true partnership" during remarks at the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington.
OceanaGold CEO Gerard Bond joined Bloomberg Open Interest to explain how soaring gold prices, lower production costs, and rising output are creating record profits and massive shareholder returns. He also reveals why the company refuses to hedge gold, and how AI could unlock more gains in mining efficiency.
McCormick CEO Brendan Foley joins Bloomberg Open Interest to break down the company's move to acquire Unilever's food business, revealing a strategy centered on global scale, flavor innovation, and supply chain control. He explains how McCormick plans to outcompete private labels, tap into wellness trends, and build a dominant "flavor powerhouse" through both acquisitions and in-house innovation.
Oil markets are fluctuating between reality and expectations as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz choke global supply. Bloomberg's oil markets reporter Mia Gindis joined Bloomberg Open Interest to break down why physical oil prices remain high despite falling futures, and how geopolitical outcomes could send prices anywhere from $90 to well above $100 per barrel.
Private credit markets are facing a real stress test, but it's not a crisis according to Moody's Global Head of Private Credit Marc Pinto. He joined Bloomberg Open Interest to discuss why redemptions are rising, how fund structures are preventing panic, and why returns and valuations are starting to fall and what it means for investors and the future of the asset class.