What did Brazil do to prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi?

Brazil blocked access to prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, preventing users in the country from trading on these services. Authorities said the platforms were operating without proper regulation. The move effectively removes these markets from Brazil’s retail investor base.

Why did Brazil ban prediction markets?

Brazil’s Finance Ministry said the platforms violated existing betting laws and posed risks to investors. Officials also raised concerns about gambling addiction and financial harm. The government framed the decision as a consumer protection measure.

What did Finance Minister Dario Durigan say about the ban?

Dario Durigan said stricter enforcement was needed to curb the “social harm” caused by unregulated gambling-like platforms. He emphasised that prediction markets lack proper oversight under current Brazilian law. The government plans to continue tightening regulation in this area.

What role did Brazil’s central bank play in this decision?

Banco Central do Brasil banned derivatives tied to non-economic events such as sports, political outcomes, and gaming. The central bank cited risks to market integrity and investor protection. This expands the crackdown beyond just platform access to the underlying financial products.

Are prediction markets considered gambling in Brazil?

Yes, Brazilian authorities are treating many prediction market activities as a form of gambling. Because they involve betting on uncertain outcomes, regulators see them as falling under betting laws. Without proper licensing, they are considered illegal.

How does this affect crypto-linked platforms like Polymarket?

Polymarket, which operates on blockchain infrastructure, loses access to a large market of Brazilian users. This highlights how crypto platforms are still subject to national regulations. It also increases regulatory risk for similar decentralised applications.

Is this crackdown unique to Brazil?

No, this is part of a broader global trend. Portugal has already restricted Polymarket, and several U.S. states have taken legal action against similar platforms. Regulators worldwide are increasingly scrutinising prediction markets.

What are the risks for investors using prediction markets?

Key risks include lack of regulation, potential financial losses, and unclear legal status. Platforms may be blocked suddenly, as seen in Brazil. There is also counterparty and liquidity risk depending on the platform structure.

Brazil bans prediction markets over gambling risks

Written by Mahathir BayenaPublished Apr. 25 2026Last Updated Apr. 25 2026

Brazil has blocked access to prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, citing risks to investors and rising concerns over gambling-like activity.

Finance Minister Dario Durigan said the platforms violated betting regulations approved by Congress and lacked proper oversight, prompting the government to restrict access.

“We have advocated for stricter enforcement and very rigorous regulation, which will continue to advance, so that we can curb the negative externalities and social harm that unregulated gambling causes to the Brazilian population,”

Said Dario Durigan.

The country’s central bank, Banco Central do Brasil, also banned derivatives tied to sports, gaming, political events and other non-economic outcomes, citing risks to market integrity.

Authorities said the measures are intended to protect household income and reduce exposure to financial losses linked to speculative betting platforms.

Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior said the crackdown aims to “protect income, prevent financial losses, and reduce families' exposure to unsafe practices.”

The move reflects a wider global trend, with countries like Portugal and several U.S. states also tightening restrictions on prediction markets amid growing regulatory scrutiny.