Bitcoin has risen 12% since the onset of the Iran conflict, outperforming equities and gold as Bitwise attributes the move directly to escalating geopolitical tensions.
The wealth manager’s CIO Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen said the rally reflects structural shifts in the global financial system rather than traditional risk-on behaviour.
“Chaos is a ladder,”
Said Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen.
The analysts argued bitcoin’s strength stems from increasing fragmentation in global finance, where demand for neutral, non-sovereign assets is rising as geopolitical risks intensify.
Bitwise described bitcoin as “two bets in one,” combining its established role as a store of value with a growing, underappreciated use case as a cross-border settlement currency, particularly as sanctions and financial restrictions reshape trade flows.
The report pointed to developments such as Russia’s removal from the SWIFT network and Iran’s openness to bitcoin for oil-related transactions as evidence of a gradual shift away from dollar-dominated systems.
Bitwise said this dynamic enhances bitcoin’s valuation through increased optionality, arguing that if adoption expands across both monetary storage and transaction use cases, a $1 million price could represent a baseline rather than a ceiling.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $74,139.65.