Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon said larger US tax refunds in 2026 could revive the so-called “YOLO” trade, potentially sending as much as $150 billion into equities and Bitcoin by the end of March.
In a note cited by CNBC, Kwon said higher savings from refunds, particularly among higher-income consumers, may fuel renewed retail speculation in digital assets and momentum stocks.
“Speculation picks up with bigger savings… we expect YOLO to return,”
Kwon wrote, adding that additional tax-related savings would likely flow back into equities, with some liquidity potentially reaching Bitcoin and stocks such as Robinhood and Boeing.
The larger refunds stem from US President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed in July 2025, which included favourable provisions for 2025 tax filings and aimed to cut up to $1.6 trillion in federal spending.
However, crypto demand will depend on sentiment, with Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard noting that retail inflows into digital assets are more likely if positive price momentum returns.
“If sentiment starts to come around and retail sees positive upwards momentum in crypto assets, I see that as increasing the likelihood of funds flowing in this direction,”
Sondergaard said, cautioning that investors may instead favour other high-momentum assets.
While smart money traders were net short Bitcoin by about $107 million, whales accumulated more than $41.9 million in spot Ether across 22 wallets in the past week, underscoring diverging positioning between institutional traders and large holders.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $66,784.33.