A transaction-level study by KlariVis found that customers at 92 US community banks moved a net $78.3 million in deposits to Coinbase over 13 months, with $2.77 flowing out for every $1.00 returning across banks where direction could be determined.
The analysis reviewed 225,577 Coinbase-related transactions and showed total outflows of $122.4 million versus $44.2 million in inflows, with money market accounts accounting for 96.3% of identifiable transaction volume moving to the exchange.
Across the 53 banks with directional data, average outbound transfers were $851 while inbound transfers averaged $2,999 but occurred far less frequently, and money market accounts alone represented $36.8 million of the net outflow.
The banks analysed ranged from $185 million to $4.5 billion in deposits, with institutions under $1 billion showing higher relative exposure, as 82% to 84% of Coinbase-related transactions reflected funds leaving compared with roughly 66% to 67% at larger peers.
KlariVis said that if similar patterns hold nationwide, more than 3,500 of the roughly 3,950 US community banks could be experiencing comparable customer activity, raising concerns about potential impacts on local credit supply.
Using academic estimates that small banks reduce lending by about $0.39 for every $1 decline in deposits, the firm estimated the $78.3 million net outflow could translate into roughly $30.5 million in reduced lending capacity.
The findings arrive amid debate over the CLARITY Act and the earlier GENIUS Act, with bank groups and executives including Brian Moynihan warning that interest-bearing stablecoins could accelerate deposit migration, while Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong has argued against restrictions, as prediction market Polymarket currently assigns an 83% probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law this year.