Bitwise Asset Management and GraniteShares have filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch six prediction-market-style ETFs tied to US election outcomes.
Bitwise’s proposed PredictionShares lineup would list on NYSE Arca and include funds paying out based on whether Democrats or Republicans win the 2028 presidential race, the 2026 Senate, or the 2026 House.
“The fund’s investment objective is to provide capital appreciation to investors in the event that a member of the Democratic Party is the winner of the US Presidential election taking place on November 7, 2028,”
The prospectus stated.
Each fund would allocate at least 80% of net assets to binary event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges, which settle at $1 if the referenced outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.
In effect, the ETFs wrap political prediction market exposure inside a regulated fund vehicle, with share prices reflecting implied probabilities between $0 and $1 based on polling and market sentiment.
GraniteShares filed a parallel set of six funds structured in a similar way, underscoring growing issuer interest in financialising event-based contracts.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted that this is not the first such filing, referencing similar proposals from Roundhill Investments, and suggested more prediction-style ETF applications are likely to follow.