Traders have committed more than $84 million across seven prediction contracts on Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad to map Bitcoin’s price path through 2026, signalling cautious optimism rather than expectations of a rapid breakout.
On Polymarket, nearly $61 million in volume is tied to a February 2026 contract that prices a 45% chance of Bitcoin reaching $75,000, while odds fall sharply to 17% at $80,000 and near 1% for six-figure targets during that month.
A broader Polymarket contract tracking price levels before January 2027 assigns roughly a 40% probability to Bitcoin touching $100,000 in 2026, with probabilities declining progressively above $110,000 and long-shot targets such as $250,000 hovering near 5%.
Downside hedging remains visible, including notable positioning around $15,000, suggesting traders are willing to pay for protection against severe drawdowns even as they retain upside exposure.
Timeline-based contracts indicate modest expectations for new all-time highs early in 2026, with odds near 2% by March and 7% by June, rising gradually to around 23% by year-end.
Kalshi’s annual threshold contracts using the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index show close to a 39% chance of Bitcoin trading above $99,999.99 during 2026, with probabilities stepping down at $110,000 and $120,000, reinforcing a measured outlook for six-figure prices.
Across platforms, thin liquidity in smaller contracts and capital distribution across multiple strike levels underline a market that is hedged and methodical, pricing a gradual recovery path rather than an imminent surge to new highs.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $68,691.04.