Four crypto wallets made roughly $663,000 by betting on a US-Iran ceasefire just hours before it was confirmed, raising concerns over potential insider trading.
Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain found the wallets were newly created and funded on the same day, with no prior transaction history before placing the trades.
The accounts took “YES” positions at low implied probabilities between 2.9% and 10.3%, suggesting the market did not expect the ceasefire at the time.
The timing and precision of the trades have led to speculation that the wallets may have acted on non-public or privileged information.
Similar patterns have emerged on platforms like Polymarket, where traders have previously profited from accurately predicting geopolitical events before public announcements.
In one case, a trader reportedly earned nearly $1 million with a 93% success rate on bets tied to US and Israeli military actions involving Iran.
The incidents have intensified scrutiny from lawmakers, with concerns that prediction markets could enable individuals with access to sensitive information to profit from global conflicts, even as industry leaders argue for stronger enforcement rather than outright bans.