Bitcoin has surged about 12% since late February as the Iran conflict reshapes investor perception, with the asset outperforming both equities and gold during a geopolitical shock.
The divergence comes as the Bitcoin narrative shifts beyond “digital gold” toward a potential neutral settlement layer, according to Matt Hougan.
Hougan argues markets are now pricing Bitcoin as both a store of value and a “call option” on its future use as a real-world currency, particularly after Iran moved to demand Bitcoin tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin has risen 12% since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began on February 28, while the S&P 500 has fallen 1% and gold has dropped 10%, breaking its typical correlation as a risk-sensitive asset.
“In a world where countries have weaponised their financial rails, bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative,”
Hougan said.
The shift has been reinforced by Iran’s plan to charge roughly $20 million per day in Bitcoin-based tolls for oil shipments, marking one of the first sovereign use cases of crypto in physical trade settlement.
However, critics argue the move reflects sanctions pressure rather than genuine adoption, noting that global crypto payment infrastructure, including stablecoin rails and cross-border systems, remains early-stage.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $74,738.19.