Nearly $15 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on Friday, coinciding with a key US-Iran diplomatic deadline that could amplify market volatility.
The expiry represents around 40% of Bitcoin open interest on Deribit, highlighting the scale of positioning that will be unwound in a single session.
“Bitcoin’s recent surge… was catalysed by President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone strikes… this diplomatic window expires almost perfectly in tandem with Friday’s options expiry,”
Said Deribit chief commercial officer, Jean-David Pequignot.
Despite the large size, analysts expect a relatively orderly settlement, with implied volatility compressing as traders reduce risk ahead of the event.
However, attention is shifting to what happens after expiry, when the removal of large options positions could allow price to move more freely.
Past expiries have triggered sharp weekend moves, particularly when combined with macro catalysts, raising the potential for increased volatility following settlement.
Bitcoin is currently holding near $70,900, with analysts pointing to ETF inflows and on-chain accumulation as key signals for whether fresh demand can support further upside.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $71,167.64.