Bitcoin faces deeper bear warning as market value slips
Bitcoin’s market value has fallen to about US$1.46 trillion, placing the cryptocurrency below several major technology companies and commodities in global asset rankings.
The decline has added pressure to Bitcoin’s market outlook as investors weigh inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and weaker sentiment across digital assets.
Gold remains the world’s largest asset by market value at nearly US$31 trillion, according to the figures cited in the report.
Bitcoin now ranks behind Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Broadcom, Saudi Aramco, Tesla, and Meta Platforms.
CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju warned that Bitcoin’s current bear market could continue until early 2027.
Ju based his view on an on-chain profitability model that tracks how investor profits and losses behave after profit-taking begins to reverse.
The model suggests Bitcoin investors’ profit and loss trends often weaken for about 18 months after a major profit-taking cycle breaks down.
"Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027. The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We’re not there yet,"
Ki Young Ju said.
Ju said Bitcoin’s investor profit decline began in October 2025, which could place the market in a longer downturn if past cycles repeat.
He pointed to previous market phases in 2014, 2018, and 2022 as examples of similar profitability patterns following major peaks.
The CryptoQuant PnL Index Signal, which uses 365-day moving averages to track investor profitability, has turned lower after reaching a peak last year.
Ju said the indicator has not yet shown the recovery pattern usually linked to a stronger market reversal.
He said the trend would need to shift towards rising unrealised profits and falling realised profits before a confirmed recovery appears.
Bitcoin traded near US$73,289 at the time of the report, marking a slight decline over 24 hours.
CoinGlass data showed total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives fell to around US$55 billion.
Liquidations across the derivatives market reached nearly US$224 million over the same 24-hour period.
Long traders took most of the damage as more than US$30 million in bullish positions were liquidated.
Short liquidations were lower, with around US$17 million in bearish positions wiped out during the same period.
Despite the liquidation pressure, trader positioning on major exchanges such as Binance and OKX still leaned bullish.
The long-short ratio suggested many traders continued to expect a Bitcoin rebound, even as market data showed growing strain.
The latest warning highlights a divide between bullish trader positioning and on-chain signals pointing to a possible longer downtrend.
Bitcoin’s next major market signal may come from whether investor profitability improves or whether further liquidations weaken confidence across crypto derivatives markets.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $74,055.98.