Bitcoin may no longer track Federal Reserve policy as closely as before, with new data suggesting the cryptocurrency is now leading rather than reacting to monetary signals.
The shift follows the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, which brought in institutional investors that tend to position ahead of macroeconomic changes rather than respond to them.
“As a result, BTC may have evolved from a macro 'lagging receiver' to a 'leading pricer,”
Said Binance Research, noting that crypto-native drivers and institutional flows are becoming more influential.
Binance data shows Bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned strongly negative since 2024 after previously being mildly positive.
The reversal suggests Bitcoin is no longer moving in sync with global easing cycles and may instead anticipate policy shifts before they are reflected in traditional markets.
The change comes amid renewed macro uncertainty, including rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions, which have shifted expectations from rate cuts toward potential hikes.
Despite this, Binance argues central banks may ultimately pivot back toward supporting growth, with Bitcoin likely to price in that shift earlier than other risk assets.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $68,955.03.