Select Harvests raises almond price forecast despite lower 2025 crop

Select Harvests (ASX:SHV) announced that its forecast almond price has increased to $10.35/kg, supported by robust global demand and positive macroeconomic conditions.

However, due to challenging growing conditions, the 2025 crop estimate has been revised down to between 24,000 and 26,500 metric tonnes, from the previous estimate of 27,500–29,000 MT.

Managing Director and CEO David Surveyor stated that they are seeing strong almond pricing with favourable fundamentals expected to continue. While the crop forecast is lower, he noted that the improved pricing is expected to offset the volume decline.

Approximately two-thirds of the 2025 crop remains unsold, with 86% already hedged at an average AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.648.

The company remains confident in its sales strategy and market position.

The company cited larger hull sizes, lower crack-out rates in the Nonpareil variety, a weaker bloom, and frost-related losses as the primary reasons for the lower yield.

Despite this, quality remains high, and Select Harvests expects solid pricing support from the strong kernel and inshell grades.

Global supply factors also support a favourable pricing outlook.

The US crop is expected to reach around 2.7 billion lbs, with lower carry-over stock and adverse weather during bloom likely to reduce the 2025 yield. 

Rising demand from key markets, particularly China and India, is pushing up prices. California's limited supply of inshell almonds ahead of Diwali is also benefiting Australian producers.