- Australia?s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% in the third quarter and 3% over the 12months to September 2021.
- CPI has also increased by 3% in the 12 months to September 2021; its fastest rate in 6 years.
- New dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers & automotive fuel were the biggest drivers behind the CPI increase.
Australia?s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen by the fastest rate in 6 years, fuelling speculation the inflation genie could escape the bottle.
CPI, or the measure of household inflation / the price of a weighted average market basket of goods and services purchased by a household, surged 3% over the 12 months to September 2021.
For the quarter, CPI rose 0.8% in line with expectations.
A number of factors are fuelling the increase in CPI both QoQ and YoY. The price of automotive fuel experienced a 7.1% growth rate from the June 2021 quarter, and a 24.7% rise since the September 2020 quarter due to higher global prices of crude oil as economies recover post-pandemic in addition to supply chain disruptions.
The price of motor vehicles rose 1.4% from the June quarter as the global semiconductor shortage continues to impact production and new car supplies from automakers worldwide.
Similarly, the surge in CPI to September 2021 can also be attributed to the pandemic-fuelled increase in construction activity and subsequent rise in the cost of building materials.
Like the price of petrol, the cost of building materials has surged due to supply chain disruptions and soaring demand for new houses, which have caused the largest rise in new dwelling prices since September 2000.
Conversely, the average price of clothing and footwear fell 3.8% from the June quarter as retailers moved excess winter stock left over from low demand amid lockdowns on Australia?s east coast.
If CPI continues to rise, the RBA may be forced to raise interest rates earlier than anticipated, which will have a flow-on effect across many industries including the currently hot housing market, employment, and others.
But for now, with underlying inflation of 2.1% which is within the RBA?s 2%-3% target band, record low interest rates may be here to stay for a little while longer.