Takeda raises guidance as "Vyvanse cliff" recedes and new pipeline hits

Takeda Pharmaceutical (NYSE:TAK) signaled on Thursday that it is successfully weathering the peak of its generic competition woes.

Reporting results for the first nine months of fiscal 2025 (ended Dec. 31), the Osaka-based drugmaker showed that while revenue dipped 3.3% to ¥3.41 trillion due to the anticipated "erosion" of its ADHD blockbuster Vyvanse, the impact is finally tapering off.

Bolstered by aggressive cost discipline and a favorable yen exchange rate, Takeda raised its full-year revenue forecast to ¥4.53 trillion and its core operating profit target to ¥1.15 trillion.

The narrative has shifted from managing loss-of-exclusivity (LOE) to launching a "transformative" new portfolio.

Takeda confirmed it has submitted New Drug Applications (NDAs) for oveporexton (for narcolepsy) and rusfertide (for polycythemia vera), while remaining on track to file for zasocitinib, its highly selective TYK2 inhibitor for plaque psoriasis.

Management expects all three to launch within the next 18 months, each carrying multibillion-dollar peak sales potential.

The company’s "Growth & Launch" products, including the blockbuster gut-treatment Entyvio, are now narrowing the gap created by Vyvanse’s decline.

To accelerate this transition, Takeda also announced a major organizational shakeup effective April 1, 2026, creating a new International Business Unit and a dedicated Transformation Office to integrate AI into its drug discovery and commercial operations.