Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said he now sees a 90% chance the Clarity Act will pass by the end of April, outpacing prediction market estimates as White House pressure intensifies.
Garlinghouse’s projection comes as lawmakers work toward a White House-backed March 1 deadline to advance crypto market structure legislation before the midterms, with Polymarket currently pricing the bill’s 2026 passage at about 72%.
“I think it’s now 90% it will pass by the end of April,”
Said Ripple CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, adding that:
“The White House is pushing hard on this, and I think that is a big reason why it will get done. It needs to get done for U.S. leadership.”
Kalshi contracts show an 85% probability the broader measure becomes law before 2027, though only a 48% likelihood before May, underscoring the gap between industry optimism and market-based pricing.
The main sticking point remains Senate disagreement over stablecoin reward provisions, particularly whether crypto platforms can offer incentives to users moving funds from traditional banks.
“I love that. That means the traditional financial industry is coming into the crypto industry more and more, and they want to make sure for them to compete, they have those clear rules of the road,”
Said Ripple CEO, Brad Garlinghouse.