Prediction market Polymarket activity has surged as Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator card sits above $6.3 million with days left in Goldin’s flagship Pokémon and trading card game auction.
The auction has drawn intense attention as Polymarket traders price in a high likelihood the card clears $6 million, while showing growing uncertainty about a record-breaking outcome above $10 million.
The sale centres on Logan Paul’s Japanese CoroCoro Pikachu Illustrator graded PSA Gem Mint 10, the only card of its kind and the current Guinness World Record holder for the most expensive Pokémon card ever sold.
Polymarket data shows traders assign a roughly 96% probability the final price exceeds $6 million, with confidence strongest in the $7 million to $8 million range before falling sharply at higher thresholds.
Odds drop to about 65% at $10 million and decline into single digits above $18 million, suggesting traders expect a strong finish rather than an extreme outlier result.
The live auction has already reached a high bid of $5.1 million, or about $6.32 million including buyer’s premium, with extended bidding rules likely to prolong the final session on Sunday night.
While hype from Logan Paul’s promotion and a planned livestream adds spectacle, Polymarket pricing indicates traders are anchoring expectations to historical comparables rather than pure emotion.