Mosaic phosphate sales plunge as weather, pricing stifle demand

The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) flagged a sharp downturn in its North American phosphate business to close out 2025, as the fertilizer giant grapples with a perfect storm of climatic and economic headwinds that have bloated inventories and squeezed cash flow.

In a market update released Friday, the Tampa-based producer estimated that fourth-quarter phosphate sales volumes fell to approximately 1.3 million tonnes.

Potash sales fared better at roughly 2.2 million tonnes, bringing full-year total sales to 9 million tonnes—a figure that remained flat compared to 2024 despite higher production targets earlier in the year.

The company attributed the weakness primarily to a "compressed application window" in North America.

An early onset of winter weather, coupled with sustained pressure on grower economics, led many farmers to defer essential fall fertilizer treatments.

This demand destruction was particularly acute in phosphates, where high prices relative to potash have begun to test the limits of grower affordability.

The challenges extended to Brazil, where Mosaic’s Fertilizantes segment missed volume expectations.

The company cited intensifying credit constraints for Brazilian farmers and a surge of "low-analysis" phosphate imports from China, which undercut local market shares and margins.

The logistical and demand hurdles resulted in a significant inventory build, pressuring the company's year-end cash position.

Looking toward 2026, management struck a more constructive tone, betting on a "replenishment cycle" as soil nutrients are depleted.

The company expects prices to remain supported by supply-side constraints, noting that Chinese phosphate export restrictions are likely to persist through at least the first half of 2026.