Michael B. Jordan has become the favourite to win Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards on prediction market platform Polymarket after his odds surged more than fourfold since early March.
The “Sinners” star now holds roughly 47% odds of winning the Oscar, narrowly ahead of Timothée Chalamet at about 45%, while Leonardo DiCaprio, Wagner Moura and Ethan Hawke trail with single-digit probabilities.
Jordan’s momentum followed his win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, where he took the top male acting prize days before the Academy Awards ceremony scheduled for March 15.
Jordan earned the Oscar nomination for playing twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the 2025 vampire horror film “Sinners”, while Chalamet was nominated for his role in the drama “Marty Supreme”.
Trading activity around the Best Actor category has surpassed $5.6 million on Polymarket as traders speculate on the outcome ahead of the awards ceremony.
Prediction markets have grown in popularity since the 2024 U.S. elections, with crypto exchanges and financial platforms increasingly exploring event-based trading products.
Polymarket is planning a broader U.S. rollout later in 2026 but continues to face regulatory challenges from several state-level authorities over oversight of prediction markets.