Humana (NYSE:HUM) issued a sobering outlook for 2026, projecting that a significant drop in government bonus payments will weigh on its bottom line even as the insurer sees a massive rebound in customer acquisition.
The Louisville-based company expects 2026 adjusted earnings to be "at least $9" per share—a steep drop from the $17.14 reported for the full year 2025.
The anticipated earnings retreat stems primarily from a "Star Ratings headwind" for the 2026 bonus year.
Lower quality scores, which determine the level of federal rebates insurers receive, have created a significant revenue gap that mitigation efforts can only partially close.
Despite this financial pressure, Humana is doubling down on its "customer-led benefit strategy," forecasting that individual Medicare Advantage membership will grow by approximately 25% in 2026.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Humana reported an adjusted net loss of $3.96 per share, which was in line with management’s prior expectations.
The Insurance segment’s benefit ratio—a key metric of medical costs versus premiums—stood at 93.1% for the quarter.
For the full year, the ratio was 90.4%, coming in slightly better than the high end of the company's guidance.