Humana (NYSE:HUM) issued a sobering outlook for 2026, projecting that a significant drop in government bonus payments will weigh on its bottom line even as the insurer sees a massive rebound in customer acquisition.
The Louisville-based company expects 2026 adjusted earnings to be "at least $9" per share—a steep drop from the $17.14 reported for the full year 2025.
The anticipated earnings retreat stems primarily from a "Star Ratings headwind" for the 2026 bonus year.
Lower quality scores, which determine the level of federal rebates insurers receive, have created a significant revenue gap that mitigation efforts can only partially close.
Despite this financial pressure, Humana is doubling down on its "customer-led benefit strategy," forecasting that individual Medicare Advantage membership will grow by approximately 25% in 2026.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Humana reported an adjusted net loss of $3.96 per share, which was in line with management’s prior expectations.
The Insurance segment’s benefit ratio—a key metric of medical costs versus premiums—stood at 93.1% for the quarter.
For the full year, the ratio was 90.4%, coming in slightly better than the high end of the company's guidance.
Beyond its core insurance business, Humana’s "CenterWell" healthcare services and Medicaid platforms continued to expand.
CenterWell Senior Primary Care added over 100,000 patients in 2025, a 25% increase bolstered by the acquisition of The Villages Health.
The company also expanded its Medicaid footprint to 13 states, with major launches in Georgia and Texas slated for 2027.