The US Federal Reserve’s divided outlook on interest rates is expected to shape crypto market momentum into 2026.
The central bank cut rates three times in 2025, with the latest reduction in December.
Those moves lowered the benchmark rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
Despite easing in 2025, projections suggest limited further cuts next year.
Current forecasts point to only one additional rate cut in 2026.
Rates remain at their highest levels since 2008.
Policymakers are weighing labour market data, inflation trends and economic growth.
Inflation risks linked to tariffs are also influencing decision-making.
The Federal Reserve will undergo a leadership change in May.
Jerome Powell’s term as chair is set to end at that time.
President Donald Trump is reportedly considering more dovish candidates.
The Fed’s January meeting will be closely watched by markets.
It marks the first opportunity to update guidance for the year.
CME Group data shows markets price only a 20% chance of a January cut.
Expectations rise to about 45% for a cut in March.
The December dot plot highlighted deep divisions among policymakers.