Ethereum hit its projected breakdown target near $1,800 in early February before rebounding about 23%, but analysts warn the recovery lacks conviction and may still leave the door open to deeper losses.
The bounce followed a drop to around $1,740, yet price action continues to form lower highs alongside a hidden bearish divergence, suggesting sellers remain active beneath the surface.
Technical charts now show a developing bear-flag structure, with weak volume and fading on-balance volume signalling that the rebound is not supported by strong, sustained buying.
On-chain data indicates the rally is being driven mainly by short-term traders, as short-term holder NUPL recovered roughly 35% from capitulation levels too quickly to confirm a durable bottom.
At the same time, long-term holder selling has intensified, with net outflows from investors holding ETH for more than 155 days rising by about 82% in just four days.
Key resistance remains near $2,150, with the broader bearish structure only invalidated above $2,780, levels Ethereum has so far failed to reclaim.
If support near $1,750 breaks, analysts say downside targets around $1,500 and even $1,000 remain in play as weak volume and cautious long-term behaviour continue to dominate.
At the time of reporting, Ethereum price was $2,097.58.