Carrier Q4 net sales fall 6% YoY to $4.84 billion

Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR) signaled a shift in its industrial focus on Thursday, relying on a boom in AI data center demand to navigate a steep downturn in the North American residential housing market.

The Florida-based climate solutions leader reported fourth-quarter net sales of $4.84 billion, a 6% decline from the prior year.

Organic sales fell 9%, reflecting a continued "medicine-taking" period as the company aggressively thinned out distributor inventories.

While GAAP earnings from continuing operations were nearly flat at $0.03 per share, adjusted earnings reached $0.34, missing the $0.36 consensus as the company absorbed the final stages of its portfolio transformation.

The quarterly decline masked a sharp divergence in the company's core segments.

While residential and light commercial volumes plummeted nearly 40% due to high interest rates and destocking, Carrier’s commercial HVAC orders surged 50% year-over-year.

This growth was anchored by massive wins in the hyperscale data center space and a fifth consecutive year of double-digit expansion in its high-margin aftermarket services.

For the full year 2025, Carrier generated $21.75 billion in sales and returned $3.7 billion to shareholders, fulfilling its promise to prioritize capital returns during its divestiture cycle.

Looking ahead to 2026, Carrier issued a "recovery" outlook, projecting sales of approximately $22 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.80.