A report from Ark Invest and Unchained says quantum computing could eventually challenge Bitcoin’s cryptographic security but the threat is likely years or decades away.
The study examined whether advances in quantum computing could use Shor’s algorithm to break the elliptic curve cryptography that secures Bitcoin wallets, concluding that current machines remain far below the required capability.
“Today’s quantum systems lack the capabilities required to compromise Bitcoin,”
The researchers wrote.
The report said Bitcoin’s cryptographic protections rely on hash functions for mining and elliptic curve cryptography for wallet ownership, though future quantum computers could theoretically reverse public keys to recover private keys.
Researchers noted that roughly 1.7 million BTC in older P2PK addresses believed to be lost and about 5.2 million BTC in reused or certain newer address types could be exposed, representing about 35% of total supply.
The report also said current quantum computers operate in the “Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum” era with about 100 logical qubits, while breaking a Bitcoin key would require thousands of error-corrected qubits.
Ark Invest said any quantum threat would likely emerge gradually over time, giving the Bitcoin developer community an opportunity to adopt post-quantum cryptography through a future consensus upgrade.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $70,208.47.