Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is trading close to the $90,000 resistance level on Monday, fuelling cautious optimism of a short-term recovery after recent price weakness.
Market sentiment has improved slightly as BTC rebounds from last week’s pullback, although gains remain fragile near a key psychological threshold.
The recovery attempt is being challenged by weakening institutional demand, highlighted by renewed capital outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Data from SoSoValue show that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $497.05 million last week, marking the largest weekly withdrawal since 21 November.
The outflows ended a brief streak of positive ETF inflows, raising concerns about sustained institutional conviction in the current price range.
Analysts warn that continued ETF outflows could add selling pressure and increase the risk of another corrective move for Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report suggests Bitcoin’s market cycle may be shifting towards bearish conditions due to slowing demand growth.
The report notes that indicators are showing signs of demand exhaustion alongside early signals of a broader downtrend.
After three major spot demand waves since 2023—driven by the US spot ETF launch, the US presidential election outcome, and the Bitcoin Treasury Companies bubble—demand growth has fallen below trend since early October 2025.
CryptoQuant analyst said.
This slowdown implies that much of the incremental demand supporting the current cycle may already have been realised.
The reduction in fresh demand removes a key pillar of price support that previously underpinned Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
On-chain data also show that large investors are trimming their exposure, with wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC growing below historical trends.
The behaviour of these large holders mirrors patterns observed in late 2021, shortly before Bitcoin entered its 2022 bear market.
CryptoQuant analysts estimate that a potential bear-market floor could emerge near $56,000, a level aligned with Bitcoin’s historical realised price.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin recently found support at the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level around $85,869.
The price rebounded by nearly 4% over the past three days, bringing BTC back towards the $90,000 resistance zone.
A daily close above $90,000 could open the door for a further recovery towards the next resistance level at $94,253.
Momentum indicators are showing tentative improvement, with the Relative Strength Index climbing towards the neutral 50 mark.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has also printed a bullish crossover, lending short-term support to the recovery narrative.
However, failure to break higher could trigger another pullback, with key downside support seen near $85,569.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $90,182.83.