The Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) price extended its early-year rally this week, climbing above $97,000 for the first time since November 2025.
The move renewed debate over whether the market is entering a new bullish phase or pausing before another attempt at a six-figure valuation.
Bitcoin previously cleared the $94,000 resistance level, which had acted as a technical barrier for several weeks.
Market participants initially expected the breakout to carry the price quickly towards $100,000.
Attention has since shifted to on-chain indicators linked to short-term holders, often seen as the most reactive group of investors.
In a 16 January post on X, pseudonymous analyst Darkfost highlighted the importance of the short-term holder realised price.
The realised price reflects the average cost at which investors who bought Bitcoin within the last one to three months acquired their holdings.
Data shared by Darkfost shows the short-term holder realised price sitting near $102,000.
This suggests that most recent buyers are currently holding Bitcoin at an unrealised loss.
The analyst said the metric has been adjusted to account for roughly 800,000 BTC recently moved by Coinbase.
As Bitcoin approaches this cost basis, short-term holders face a choice between holding for further upside or selling once prices return to break-even.
Exchange inflow data indicates that short-term holders have been actively taking profits during recent price swings.
Darkfost said the realised price level will become critical once short-term profit-taking subsides.
He added that Bitcoin trading below the short-term holder cost basis has historically signalled accumulation opportunities.
The analyst cautioned that this pattern does not apply during bear markets, when short-term holders often endure extended drawdowns.
Separately, Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish echoed the importance of the same on-chain level.
Beamish said reclaiming the short-term holder realised price would indicate that recent buyers are back in profit.
He noted that regaining this level would be necessary for bullish momentum to re-accelerate.
Failure to reclaim the cost basis, he said, would keep the market in a recovery phase rather than a full uptrend.
Analysts said the coming days could determine whether short-term holders become sellers or fuel another push towards $100,000.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $95,273.98.