Bitcoin has finished the year in negative territory following its most recent halving, breaking a long-standing market pattern.
Historically, Bitcoin rallied strongly in the year after halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
The latest halving took place in April 2024, but Bitcoin ended 2025 lower than it began.
Data shows Bitcoin is trading more than 30% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October.
Analysts say the outcome challenges the long-referenced four-year crypto market cycle.
Bitcoin ending the year down shows the four-year cycle is officially dead.
Vivek Sen said.
Investors point to the growing influence of institutions and exchange-traded funds on price behaviour.
Crypto isn’t 2016 or 2020 anymore and Bitcoin now trades macro.
Armando Pantoja said.
Pantoja added that liquidity conditions, interest rates and regulation now outweigh halving-driven hype.
Some analysts argue supply dynamics have shifted as miners gain alternative financing options.
Several crypto executives, including Cathie Wood and Arthur Hayes, have said the cycle no longer applies.
Others dispute the claim, saying the cycle still exists but plays out differently.
Markus Thielen said the cycle remains intact but is no longer driven purely by supply cuts.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $87,513.67.