A senior market analyst says the long-running bitcoin adoption narrative has already been priced in and no longer offers upside for investors.
Jim Bianco argues that markets act as discounting machines, absorbing major themes well before headlines confirm them.
He says bitcoin’s rise from roughly $25,000 to above $100,000 reflected a completed “TradFi rally” rather than fresh momentum.
According to Bianco, the move to record highs last year masked weakening demand beneath the surface.
He describes the late-stage advance as a “zombie rally” driven by residual enthusiasm rather than new capital.
Bianco claims that sophisticated investors began scaling back exposure from December 2024.
He suggests this explains why bitcoin has struggled to respond to recent positive developments.
Regulatory discussions and pro-crypto signals from political figures have failed to trigger a sustained rebound.
Bianco says the market has already accounted for these events months in advance.
"That engine is now out of fuel; stop chasing a ghost,"
Jim Bianco said.
He points to repeated examples of bullish headlines failing to move prices higher.
Bianco argues that even long-standing correlations, such as bitcoin’s link to tech stocks, are weakening.
He also notes that the dollar debasement narrative no longer appears to support price action.
"Kevin Warsh speaking? Walmart accepting crypto? Nice stories, but priced in months ago,"
Jim Bianco added.
He believes these signals no longer function as catalysts for meaningful gains.
Bianco says the adoption theme has effectively been discounted to zero by the market.
He warns that expecting renewed rallies from the same storyline risks disappointment.
According to his analysis, bitcoin may remain range-bound without a new driver.
Bianco says the market is likely to stay in a prolonged winter phase.