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Crypto markets are moving away from the traditional four-year cycle as structural forces take over price discovery, according to Wintermute research.
The algorithmic trading firm shared its findings on Jan. 19, arguing that digital assets are beginning to trade more like global financial instruments.
“The traditional four-year cycle is becoming obsolete,”
Wintermute said.
“Market performance is no longer dictated by self-fulfilling timing narratives, but by where liquidity flows and investor mindshare concentrates,”
Wintermute said.
The analysis draws on Wintermute’s report examining over-the-counter trading behaviour during 2025.
Research showed that the expected post-halving rally failed to materialise across the broader market last year.
Historically, crypto-native capital rotated from bitcoin into ethereum and then into major tokens and altcoins.
That rotation weakened significantly in 2025 as exchange-traded funds and digital asset trusts absorbed sustained inflows.
Wintermute described these products as closed systems that concentrate liquidity in a narrow group of large-cap assets.