Crypto banking group Sygnum said regulatory clarity in the United States could unlock a new wave of blockchain adoption next year.
The firm said the proposed CLARITY Act and potential Bitcoin Act could pave the way for sovereign Bitcoin reserves.
Sygnum predicted that at least three G20 or G20-equivalent economies will publicly add Bitcoin to national reserves.
The report said clearer US rules could strengthen global confidence in Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
Sygnum said early adopters could benefit from Bitcoin’s economic model, creating urgency among governments.
“Once peer competition emerges, reserve diversification becomes a game-theoretic race rather than a philosophical debate,”
The report said.
The firm identified Brazil, Japan, Germany, Hong Kong and Poland as potential early adopters facing currency or policy pressures.
Lawmakers in Brazil, Hong Kong, Japan, Germany and Poland have previously proposed or debated national Bitcoin reserves.
Sygnum estimated sovereign allocations could remain below one percent of total reserves but still carry a strong signalling effect.
The report said wider adoption could lift Bitcoin’s share of the global store-of-value market closer to gold over time.
Sygnum said this scenario could imply a Bitcoin price range between $350,000 and $400,000.
RedStone co-founder Marcin Kazmierczak cautioned that sovereign adoption may progress more slowly than headlines suggest.
“For 2026, expect the actual pattern to be more pedestrian than the headlines suggest,”
Marcin Kazmierczak said.
He added that political friction and IMF pressure could limit adoption in countries such as Brazil.
Beyond reserves, Sygnum said banks are moving towards blockchain-based token rails for core operations.
Sygnum co-founder Mathias Imbach said up to 10 percent of new bond issuance could be tokenised at inception in 2026.
“The full transition will take five or more years, but the strategic decisions shaping that future are already being made,”
Mathias Imbach said.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $96,758.28.