Prediction market volumes could reach $1 trillion by 2030, according to analysts at Bernstein, as institutional adoption expands beyond sports betting.
The analysts said sports currently dominate platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but their share of trading volumes is expected to fall significantly over time.
“We expect an institutional market to develop around economics, business, and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events,”
Bernstein analysts wrote.
They argued that corporations and insurers will increasingly use prediction markets to hedge risks tied to policy and macroeconomic outcomes, offering more direct exposure than traditional derivatives.
Bernstein forecasts industry revenue could reach $10.8 billion by 2030, up from around $500 million in 2025, reflecting rapid growth in adoption.
Institutional interest is already rising, with firms like Jump Trading and Susquehanna International Group entering the space alongside partnerships involving major financial players.
The shift signals prediction markets are evolving from niche retail platforms into a mainstream financial tool, though regulatory uncertainty remains a key factor for future growth.