Why did Polymarket’s trading volume decline in April?

Polymarket recorded an 8.9% drop in monthly trading volume during April, marking its first decline since August. The slowdown came as competition intensified across the prediction market sector, particularly from rival platform Kalshi. Despite the decline, total industry trading volume still increased overall.

How much trading volume did Polymarket generate in April?

According to Dune Analytics data, Polymarket and its US-focused application generated more than $10.2 billion in trading volume during April. That compared with over $11.2 billion in March. The figures suggest activity remains large despite the monthly decline.

Why is Kalshi gaining market share from Polymarket?

Kalshi posted about a 13% increase in April trading volume, reaching roughly $14.8 billion. The platform benefits from operating directly within the US regulatory framework, which may appeal to some traders and institutions. Growing mainstream interest in event-driven trading has also helped newer competitors expand rapidly.

What are prediction markets and why are they becoming popular?

Prediction markets allow users to trade on the probability of future events, including elections, sports, economics and geopolitical outcomes. Traders buy and sell contracts based on whether they believe events will occur. The sector has gained popularity because many investors see prediction markets as both speculative trading tools and crowd-sourced forecasting systems.

Why did Polymarket leave the US market previously?

Polymarket exited the US market in 2022 as part of a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The agreement restricted the company from allowing US residents to access its global platform. Regulatory scrutiny around event contracts and derivatives remains a major issue for the industry.

How is Polymarket trying to return to the US market?

The company launched a separate US-focused application in December 2025 to regain a foothold with American users. However, the platform remains siloed from Polymarket’s larger international liquidity pools. That separation may limit trading depth compared with the global exchange.

Why are regulators concerned about prediction markets?

US lawmakers and regulators worry prediction markets could enable insider trading or create conflicts involving government officials and sensitive geopolitical events. Senator Elizabeth Warren and other lawmakers have called for tighter oversight. Concerns include markets tied to wars, energy prices and political outcomes.

How competitive is the prediction market industry becoming?

Competition is increasing rapidly as new platforms enter the market. Companies including Prophet and MoonPay are introducing AI-driven prediction trading tools and automated strategies. The sector is evolving from niche crypto betting into a broader financial trading category.

Polymarket volume falls as Kalshi gains market share

Written by Isaac FrancisPublished May. 14 2026

Polymarket recorded its first monthly decline in trading activity since August after trading volume fell about 8.9% in April amid growing competition from rival prediction market operators.

Data from Dune Analytics showed Polymarket and its US-based trading application generated more than $10.2 billion in trading volume during April compared with more than $11.2 billion in March.

At the same time, rival platform Kalshi reported a roughly 13% increase in monthly trading volume, climbing to approximately $14.8 billion during April.

Overall prediction market trading volume still expanded across the sector, rising about 12.4% month-over-month to nearly $29.8 billion as interest in event-driven trading continued growing among retail and professional traders.

Polymarket’s decline comes as the company attempts to rebuild its US presence after previously exiting the market in 2022 under a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission restricting access for American users.

The company later launched a separate US-focused application in December 2025, although the platform remains isolated from Polymarket’s global liquidity pools and broader trading ecosystem.

The sector is also attracting new entrants including Prophet and MoonPay, while US lawmakers including Elizabeth Warren have pushed for tighter oversight of prediction markets over concerns tied to insider trading and event-based speculation.