What did the Bloomberg report reveal about Polymarket users?

The report found that over 100,000 Polymarket accounts lost at least $1,000 each since January 2025. Losses significantly outnumbered gains across roughly two million wallets. This highlights widespread underperformance among retail users on the platform.

Why are most Polymarket users losing money?

Most users are losing due to poor trade timing and pricing rather than incorrect predictions. Many enter positions at extreme prices, reducing potential upside. This leads to losses even when users correctly predict outcomes.

How much of Polymarket trading is controlled by bots?

About 5% of wallets, identified as bot-like accounts, generated roughly 75% of total trading volume. These high-frequency participants dominate liquidity and execution. This creates a structural advantage over retail traders.

How concentrated are profits on Polymarket?

Profits are heavily concentrated among a small group of users. The top 1% captured 76.5% of total gains, while the top 0.1% accounted for more than half. This shows a highly uneven distribution of returns.

How many users are actually profitable on Polymarket?

A study found that 68.8% of users have lost money since 2022. Only a small minority consistently generate profits. This makes the platform challenging for most retail participants.

Are retail traders making the wrong predictions?

Not necessarily. Research suggests retail traders often pick the correct outcomes. However, they still lose money because they enter trades too late or at unfavourable prices.

What does “trading at extreme prices” mean in this context?

Extreme prices refer to bets placed when odds are very high or very low (below 10¢ or above 90¢). These positions offer limited upside but still carry risk. Frequent trading at these levels reduces profitability over time.

Is this bullish or bearish for prediction markets like Polymarket?

This is mixed. High activity and volume show strong engagement, which is positive. However, widespread retail losses may reduce long-term participation and trust if not addressed.

Image for illustrative purposes only. Not a real photo.

Polymarket users lose $1K as bots dominate

Written by Liezl GambePublished Apr 29, 2026, 12:00 AM

More than 100,000 Polymarket accounts have recorded losses of at least $1,000 since January 2025, according to a Bloomberg analysis highlighting widespread retail underperformance.

The data showed that losses significantly outnumber gains, with most users either losing money or posting minimal results despite roughly two million active wallets on the platform.

“Users who lose money trade considerably more often at extreme prices (below 10¢ or above 90¢) than users who gain,”

Researchers from the University of Toronto, HEC Montréal and ESSEC Business School said.

The study found that 68.8% of users have lost money since 2022, while the top 1% captured 76.5% of total gains and the top 0.1% accounted for more than half of all profits.

Bloomberg reported that around 5% of bot-like wallets generated 75% of total trading volume, with 823 high-volume accounts each earning over $100,000 and collectively capturing $131 million in profits.

Following the report Polymarket platform activity was unchanged at $XX.

The findings suggest that while retail traders often pick correct outcomes, poor timing and entry prices, combined with bot-driven liquidity, continue to skew profits toward a small group of sophisticated participants.