More than 100,000 Polymarket accounts have recorded losses of at least $1,000 since January 2025, according to a Bloomberg analysis highlighting widespread retail underperformance.
The data showed that losses significantly outnumber gains, with most users either losing money or posting minimal results despite roughly two million active wallets on the platform.
“Users who lose money trade considerably more often at extreme prices (below 10¢ or above 90¢) than users who gain,”
Researchers from the University of Toronto, HEC Montréal and ESSEC Business School said.
The study found that 68.8% of users have lost money since 2022, while the top 1% captured 76.5% of total gains and the top 0.1% accounted for more than half of all profits.
Bloomberg reported that around 5% of bot-like wallets generated 75% of total trading volume, with 823 high-volume accounts each earning over $100,000 and collectively capturing $131 million in profits.
Following the report Polymarket platform activity was unchanged at $XX.
The findings suggest that while retail traders often pick correct outcomes, poor timing and entry prices, combined with bot-driven liquidity, continue to skew profits toward a small group of sophisticated participants.