What happened with SpaceX and Morgan Stanley’s 2040 revenue forecast?

Morgan Stanley projected that SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4tn by 2040 under its bullish long-term scenario. The bank also expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed $2.7tn if SpaceX scales Starlink, Starship and AI-linked services as forecast.

Why does Morgan Stanley’s SpaceX revenue forecast matter for investors?

The forecast matters because SpaceX is moving through its IPO process and seeking a valuation of about $1.77tn. For retail investors, the numbers set a very high bar for future growth, profitability and market expectations.

How much revenue did SpaceX report in 2025?

SpaceX reported revenue of $18.7bn in 2025. Morgan Stanley’s $3.4tn forecast would require SpaceX to grow revenue by roughly 180 times over 15 years.

What ticker will SpaceX use if it lists on the Nasdaq?

SpaceX plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The IPO roadshow is reportedly targeting about $75bn from public market investors.

Is Morgan Stanley’s SpaceX forecast realistic for retail investors to trust?

Morgan Stanley’s forecast is very bullish and should be treated with caution. The bank is also a co-lead underwriter for the IPO, so it has a direct role in presenting SpaceX as an attractive investment.

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Morgan Stanley sees SpaceX revenue at $3.4tn by 2040

Written by Heidi Cuthbert Published Jun. 6 2026

Morgan Stanley has outlined a highly bullish long-term forecast for SpaceX as the company moves through its initial public offering process.

The investment bank projects that SpaceX revenue could climb to $3.4tn by 2040.

It also expects adjusted EBITDA to rise above $2.7tn under its most optimistic case.

Those figures would place SpaceX among the largest and most profitable companies ever built.

SpaceX reported revenue of $18.7bn in 2025.

The bank’s forecast would require the company to grow revenue by roughly 180 times over the next 15 years.

Morgan Stanley shared the projections with investors on 5 June 2026 during SpaceX’s IPO roadshow.

The bank is acting as a co-lead underwriter for the listing.

SpaceX is seeking a valuation of about $1.77tn through the offering.

The company plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.

The IPO roadshow aims to raise about $75bn from public market investors.

Chinese and Hong Kong investors have reportedly been blocked from taking part in the offering.

Morgan Stanley’s bullish case centres on Starlink, Starship and SpaceX’s expected push into AI-linked services.

Starlink remains a major part of the forecast because it already operates the world’s largest satellite internet constellation.

Starship also plays a central role because SpaceX is betting on fully reusable heavy-lift rockets to lower launch costs.

The AI element carries some of the largest assumptions in the bank’s model.

Morgan Stanley estimates that SpaceX’s AI-related business could generate $190bn in revenue by 2030.

That projection would mean the AI unit alone could become far larger than SpaceX’s entire 2025 business within four years.

The forecast also implies a compound annual growth rate of about 42% from 2025 to 2040.

That growth rate would exceed Amazon’s fastest 15-year revenue expansion, which averaged around 28% a year.

The EBITDA estimate also suggests margins near 79%.

Those margins often appear in software businesses, but they remain unusual for companies that build and launch rockets.

Morgan Stanley has a direct role in the IPO, so investors may treat its forecasts with caution.

The $190bn AI revenue target by 2030 may become the first major test of whether the wider 2040 forecast can hold.