Lost Bitcoin estimates reach 3.1M BTC

• Researchers estimate about 3.1 million Bitcoin may be permanently lost, representing roughly 15.5% of mined supply.
• The discussion resurfaced on the 16th anniversary of Satoshi Nakamoto's famous comment that lost coins increase the scarcity of remaining Bitcoin.
• Analysts continue to debate the true number of lost coins because most estimates rely on probability rather than onchain proof.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is estimated to have about 3.1 million permanently lost coins, according to multiple research reports, as the cryptocurrency community marked the 16th anniversary of a well-known comment from creator Satoshi Nakamoto about lost Bitcoin.

The discussion began on June 21, 2010, when a Bitcointalk user questioned whether forgotten wallets would reduce the network's usable supply over time.

“Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone,” said Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.

Researchers estimate between 2.7 million and 3.9 million Bitcoin may be lost, with a broader range extending from 2.3 million to 5.25 million BTC, while current circulating supply stands at about 20.05 million BTC.

A 2025 study by Mohamed El Khatib and Arnaud Legout identified only 3,197.61 Bitcoin as provably destroyed through known burn addresses, highlighting the gap between confirmed losses and estimated losses; following the analysis the Bitcoin price reaction was not disclosed.

Additional estimates rely on dormant wallet activity, with blockchain data showing about 5.25 million Bitcoin untouched for more than seven years and approximately 6.73 million Bitcoin inactive for more than five years.

Analysts continue to debate whether early holdings linked to the so-called Patoshi mining pattern, estimated at between 700,000 and 1.1 million Bitcoin, should be classified as lost, dormant or simply unspent.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $63,881.16.