Hyperliquid could gain a competitive edge in prediction markets through its HYPE token, which allows users to benefit directly from platform activity, according to Arthur Hayes.
Hayes said the exchange’s planned HIP-4 upgrade, which introduces event trading, goes beyond low fees by linking user participation to token-based economic upside.
“HIP-4 will quickly become a dominate prediction market because of Hyperliquid's large user base, much cheaper trading fees, and very robust tech infrastructure,”
Said Arthur Hayes.
The model contrasts with rivals like Polymarket and Kalshi, where users can trade outcomes but do not share in platform value through tokens.
Polymarket is expected to launch a token, informally called POLY, with premarket trading implying a roughly $14 billion fully diluted valuation, compared with about $38 billion for HYPE.
Regulation remains a key dividing line, with Polymarket and Kalshi constrained by US and regional rules, while Hyperliquid operates more freely in crypto-native markets, particularly across Asia.
The divergence highlights a structural split in prediction markets, with token-driven models offering potential value accrual while regulated platforms prioritise compliance over user-linked upside.
At the time of reporting, Hyperliquid price was $39.49.