Why does Arthur Hayes think Bitcoin could reach $126,000?

Arthur Hayes argued that rising military spending and AI infrastructure investment will increase global money printing. He believes looser financial conditions and expanding liquidity will create a strong environment for Bitcoin prices.

How does AI spending relate to Bitcoin prices?

Hayes said the US and China are heavily funding AI infrastructure because it is tied to national security and economic competitiveness. He argues this spending requires more debt, bank lending and fiat creation, which could benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin.

Why does Hayes think war is bullish for crypto?

Hayes described war spending as inflationary because governments often finance military operations through increased borrowing and monetary expansion. He believes those conditions increase liquidity and strengthen demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin.

What did Hayes say about the Iran conflict?

Hayes argued the ongoing Iran conflict could contribute to further money creation as governments increase military expenditure and domestic infrastructure spending. He suggested this could reduce reliance on US Treasurys and support inflationary trends.

What is Hayes’ broader macroeconomic argument for Bitcoin?

Hayes believes global governments will continue creating more fiat currency to fund AI development, electrification and geopolitical competition. He sees Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement and expanding monetary supply.

How has Bitcoin performed recently?

Bitcoin traded around $81,000 after recovering more than 31% from its February low near $62,800. Hayes said Bitcoin likely bottomed near $60,000 earlier this year.

Why does Hayes compare Bitcoin with gold and tech stocks?

Hayes argued Bitcoin has recently outperformed some traditional risk assets because investors increasingly see it as protection against monetary expansion. He suggested liquidity-driven markets could continue favouring crypto over some conventional assets.

Is $126,000 a guaranteed Bitcoin target?

No. Hayes described the move as highly likely based on his macroeconomic outlook, but Bitcoin remains a volatile asset heavily influenced by market sentiment, regulation and global liquidity conditions.

Hayes predicts Bitcoin return to $126K

Written by Heidi Cuthbert Published May. 13 2026Last Updated May. 13 2026

Arthur Hayes said growing military expenditures and accelerating artificial intelligence infrastructure investment could create conditions that drive Bitcoin back toward $126,000 this year.

In a Substack post, the Maelstrom chief investment officer argued that competition between the United States and China to dominate AI technology would require looser financial conditions and increased fiat currency creation.

“The combination of the political will to win the AI race and the financial will to fund the build-out with printed money and bank loans produces the perfect environment for crypto,”

Hayes wrote.

Hayes said expanding AI and electrification capital expenditure programmes would accelerate money creation globally as governments and financial systems fund infrastructure tied to national security priorities.

The investor also described the ongoing Iran conflict as inflationary, arguing increased military spending and shifts away from US Treasurys toward domestic infrastructure investment could contribute to additional liquidity creation.

Hayes previously argued the Federal Reserve may eventually ease monetary policy to support financing needs linked to geopolitical tensions and government spending priorities.

Bitcoin traded around $81,000 on Wednesday after recovering more than 31% from its February low near $62,800, according to CoinGecko data cited in the report.

“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion,”

Hayes said.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $81,053.85.