Google research suggests quantum computers may require far fewer qubits than previously thought to break the cryptography securing Bitcoin and Ethereum networks.
The study estimates fewer than 500,000 qubits could crack elliptic curve cryptography, a 20-fold reduction that accelerates potential timelines for quantum threats.
Researchers said a quantum computer could theoretically break a Bitcoin private key in around nine minutes, enabling a possible “on-spend” attack within a transaction window.
“My confidence in Q-Day by 2032 has shot up significantly,”
Said Ethereum researcher Justin Drake, citing a rising probability of quantum systems breaking private keys within the decade.
The findings also highlight Ethereum’s exposure to “at-rest” attacks, where public keys remain permanently visible and can be exploited without time constraints.
Google estimates that the 1,000 largest exposed Ethereum accounts, holding about 20.5 million ETH, could be compromised in under nine days in a quantum scenario.
The company urged the crypto industry to accelerate adoption of post-quantum cryptography as the timeline for viable quantum attacks appears to be shortening.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $67,283.87.