Galaxy Digital has projected that bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) could climb to $250,000 by the end of 2027, representing a potential rise of about 179% from current price levels.
The forecast was shared by the firm’s Head of Firmwide Research, Alex Thorn, as bitcoin continues to trade near $89,000 after falling from its October highs.
Bitcoin’s recent performance has been marked by sharp volatility, with the asset experiencing a difficult fourth quarter compared with earlier momentum in the year.
In a post on X, Thorn said bitcoin’s gradual maturation and deeper institutional adoption are expected to accelerate over the coming years.
He argued that wider institutional access, combined with easing monetary policy and increased demand for assets that hedge against dollar debasement, could strengthen bitcoin’s long-term role.
Thorn suggested bitcoin may begin to function similarly to gold within the next two years as a widely accepted hedge against monetary debasement.
BTC will hit $250k by year-end 2027.
Alex Thorn highlighted.
He also highlighted changes in bitcoin’s volatility profile, noting that long-term volatility has continued to trend lower over time.
According to Thorn, this shift is partly driven by the growth of bitcoin yield strategies and the increasing use of option overwriting by market participants.
He explained that bitcoin’s volatility smile now prices downside protection as more expensive than upside exposure, signalling a structural market change.
What is notable is that the BTC vol smile now prices puts in vol terms as more expensive than calls, which was not the case six months ago.
Alex Thorn said.
Thorn added that this shift reflects bitcoin’s transition from behaving like a developing growth asset to one that trades more like a traditional macro asset.
Despite the bullish long-term outlook, Galaxy Digital declined to provide a clear price target for bitcoin in 2026.
Thorn described 2026 as “too chaotic to predict,” citing a range of macroeconomic and political uncertainties.
He pointed to ongoing weakness across the broader crypto market, which he said is already deep in a bear phase.
Thorn noted that bitcoin has yet to firmly re-establish bullish momentum after failing to sustain levels above $100,000 to $105,000.
Until BTC firmly re-establishes itself above $100-$105k, we feel risk remains to the downside in the near term.
Alex Thorn stated.
Additional uncertainty comes from factors such as artificial intelligence capital expenditure trends, shifting monetary policy expectations and the US midterm elections.
Options market pricing reflects this uncertainty, with traders assigning similar probabilities to extreme bullish and bearish outcomes.
Current options data suggest bitcoin could trade near either $70,000 or $130,000 by June 2026.
By the end of 2026, market pricing indicates potential outcomes ranging from as low as $50,000 to as high as $250,000.
2026 could be a boring year for Bitcoin, and whether it finishes at $70k or $150k, our bullish outlook over longer time periods is only growing stronger.
Alex Thorn noted.
The forecast comes as bitcoin heads towards its weakest fourth-quarter performance since 2018.
Bitcoin has fallen about 21.5% so far this quarter, while year-to-date losses stand at roughly 4.2%.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $90,188.63.