What is the Federal Reserve expected to do at the April 29 FOMC meeting?

Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates at 3.75%, with markets pricing a 99% probability of no change. This reflects strong consensus among traders. There is virtually no expectation of a rate cut at this meeting.

Why are markets so confident the Fed will hold rates?

The main drivers are inflation at 3.3% and unemployment at 4.3%, which suggest stable economic conditions. These figures do not justify urgent tightening or easing. As a result, the Fed is expected to stay in a wait-and-see mode.

What does the CME FedWatch tool show right now?

The CME Group FedWatch tool shows a 99% chance of a rate hold and only a 1% chance of a hike. It shows zero probability for a rate cut. This indicates near-total agreement in the market.

What are prediction markets saying about future rate moves?

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi also expect no change in rates through June and July. Probabilities for holding rates remain above 80% in mid-2026. This reinforces the broader market view.

Are traders expecting any rate cuts in 2026?

Most traders expect limited or no rate cuts this year. Prediction markets show the highest probability for zero cuts, followed by one cut. This suggests a prolonged period of stable rates.

How much money is being traded on these rate predictions?

Polymarket alone has seen over $20.9 million in trading volume on 2026 rate cuts. Other markets also show millions in volume. This indicates strong conviction and active positioning by traders.

What economic data is influencing the Fed’s decision?

Key data includes inflation (CPI) at 3.3% and unemployment at 4.3%. These figures show moderate inflation and stable labour conditions. Together, they reduce the need for immediate policy changes.

How does this affect stock and crypto markets?

Stable rates can support risk assets like stocks and crypto by reducing uncertainty. However, lack of rate cuts may limit upside momentum. Markets often react more strongly when policy shifts, not when it stays the same.

Fed set to hold rates as markets price pause

Written by Heidi Cuthbert Published Apr. 27 2026Last Updated Apr. 27 2026

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.75% at the April 29 FOMC meeting, with traders assigning a 99% probability to no change.

Data from the CME Group FedWatch tool shows near-unanimous expectations for a pause, with only a 1% chance of a rate hike and no pricing for a cut.

Prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi also signal a steady policy path, with high probabilities of no change through June and July.

Traders point to March inflation at 3.3% and unemployment at 4.3% as key reasons for the Fed’s cautious stance, suggesting no urgency to adjust rates.

Longer-term expectations remain anchored around limited easing, with markets pricing a high probability of zero or one rate cut for all of 2026.

Trading volumes across prediction platforms indicate strong conviction in this outlook, with tens of millions of dollars backing the no-change scenario.

Investors are now focused on upcoming inflation and jobs data, which could shift expectations if economic conditions change.